We openly share our approach and philosophyFirst and foremost no one, including TimingTruth.com, can predict the future actions of any market. All we do is to monitor the long term trends of a specific market based upon a well established index of that market. Technically, we make educated inferences based upon a market's past behaviors relative to the current conditions. The degree to which our inferences actually match the movement of the market is dependent on the current conditions we analyze and the mathematical models used to relate these conditions to market behavior. There are many who attempt to do this for obvious reasons. The ones who are careful and serious about what they do are successful. The folks who think it's easy are often surprised in a negative way. OK, here's what we do. - First we select a market index. Remember that we only time markets, not individual stocks or funds. By selecting an index that represents a market we eliminate most of the pitfalls associated with trying to time a fund.
- We retrieve ALL the historic data for the index available and squirrel them away in our databases. We download new data daily after each market closes to keep our databases up-to-date.
- Then the analysis and modeling begin. We use multiple moving averages with offsets to optimize our results. This is the time consuming phase. Some of our models have taken years to develop and refine. We look at how the particular market has behaved in historic expanding and contracting economies. We look at rates of increase and decrease in broad market value. We look for any other extenuating condition that might have existed at the time. The result is a computer algorithm based on a mathematical formula that takes current data as input and generates a BUY or SELL signal for that specific market.
- Once we have a model we continue to test and re-test it as we get more historic data. Remember every day the market is open data are created. The process never stops so we never stop. We test over short intervals and long intervals. (Long intervals are easy;-) We test rising, falling and stagnant markets (Stagnant markets are hardest)
The important point to remember is that the goal is not a perfect prediction tool. Such a tool CANNOT exist. The goal is to be accurate enough that you benefit from the rising markets and do not lose your positive returns in a declining market. Our personal money is managed by the same models we share with you. Most anyone could do what we do if they are motivated and have a computer attached to the Internet. But we feel that to offer the fruit of our labor for a fair price will be appreciated by many who simply have no interest in downloading data and calculating moving averages every day. We just send you an email. That's easy! It makes more sense for one to do the work and then share the results with the many in an affordable way.
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