TIMINGTRUTH.COM NEWSLETTER

2010-04-07

CURRENT SIGNAL TRENDS:

The upward trend continued to hold during Mar for all the broad based global indexes that we monitor.  From the Feb lows the Small Cap and Emerging Market indexes have lead the way.  Least responsive was the European-Asia index but it still maintained a positive trend.

NEWS:

This month's news concerns Goldman Sachs denial that it bet against its clients in the mortgage market as the financial crisis of late reached its peak.  In short they are denying that they profited from the US housing meltdown and the collapse of AIG.  It should be noted that Goldman Sachs posted near record profits for 2009 despite the current economic crisis.  Mr. Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs, explains that they were only an "intermediary" between investors as opposed to a "trader" on its own accounts.  They do admit that they held short positions in residential mortgages in 2007 but affirm that this action was not a bet against their clients.  Read the entire article at the Financial Times Apr 7th.

LONG TERM  MARKET TRENDS:

This month's graph shows an unusually short period to emphasis the most recent upward trends of all indexes.  The chart shows all indexes' performance since Feb 8th 2010.

OUT STRATEGY INSIGHTS:

TimingTruth's successful investment strategy for retirement is based on the ability to detect the long term trends of broad, major markets.  That's a nice statement but it might not be so clear why it works.  In talking to a friend the other day an analogy was used which makes the concept of detecting long term trends easily understandable.  Imagine the broad markets we monitor are like large ships.  Every captain knows that you cannot change the course of these large vessels quickly and similarly once a change is started it cannot be reversed quickly.  Likewise, for a broad market to change direction takes time but more importantly once started that change cannot be quickly reversed.  It is very important to understand that this is ONLY true for broad, major markets; and certainly NOT true for sectors or other fragments of the broad market.  The Financial Industry has created a dizzying array of things they want to sell you.  These products for the most part are like speed boats zipping and whizzing around in near random patterns because they can be controlled by factors unrelated to the economy at large.  We encourage our readers to avoid these products that are influenced by emotion and possible manipulation.  (More about this topic in our Blog soon.)

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